Football Betting Statistics – Forget Loyalty, Use Stats To Find A Winner

In of revenue in the UK gambling industry, football betting is by far and away the most popular and lucrative for the bookies.

For most fans, betting decisions tend to go on gut instinct or simply by backing their favourite team.

And while loyalty might work out in some cases, you may find that a more methodical approach generates more consistent results.

I appreciate that is easier said than done and that the idea of researching statistics can be confusing for newcomers.

However, one of the key aspects of successful betting is assessing the probabilities of different outcomes based on the form of the teams involved.

This means obtaining some stats, particularly the home and away records of each team, and using them to create basic probabilities.

Understanding Football Form

Form refers to the recent performance of a football team and is usually assessed by looking at the results of a team’s last few matches – typically the last five or six games.

How a team is playing is important because it provides insights into their current performance level.

For instance, a team that usually performs well might be struggling due to injuries or off-field issues, while a typically lower-ranked team could be on a winning streak.

To assess a team’s form, look beyond just the wins and losses:

• Goals Scored and Conceded: How many goals has the team scored and conceded in recent games? A team that scores many goals but also concedes a lot might be less predictable.
• Home vs. Away Performance: Teams often perform differently at home compared to away games. Some teams are strong at home but struggle away.
• Quality of Opponents: A series of wins against weaker teams may not be as impressive as a few draws or close losses against stronger teams.

The first thing that you need to understand about form is that home advantage is real.

The general trend in the Premier League over the years has been that home teams tend to have a distinct advantage.

Historically, about 45-50% of Premier League matches have ended in a home win, around 25-30% in draws, and 20-30% in away wins.

However, these percentages can vary slightly from season to season.

For example, during the 2018/2019 Premier League season, home teams won approximately 48% of matches, while 19% ended in draws and 33% were away wins.

The 2020/2021 season saw a noticeable shift, likely influenced by the lack of fans due to COVID-19 restrictions, with home wins dropping to around 39%, draws at about 25%, and away wins increasing to 36%.

To get the most current and specific statistics, check out reliable sports statistics websites like Opta, ESPN, or the official Premier League website.

Home vs Away Form

The upshot of all this is that the separate home and away forms of each team carry more weight than the overall form.

Because of that, it is these statistics that should be used as a starting point for working out probabilities for football betting.

Home Win: add the number of the home team’s home wins to the number of away losses by the visitors and divide the total by the number of games played over that period of time.

A draw: add the number of home draws by the home team and the number of away draws by the visitors, and divide them by the total number of games.

Away Win: add the number of away losses by the home team to the number of away wins by the visitors and divide by the total games.

For example, if the home team has a home form for the season of 7 – 3 – 2 (wins – draws –losses) and the visitors have an away form of 3 – 4 – 5, the basic probabilities for each result work out something like this:

Home win = 7 (Home team’s home wins) + 5 (Visitor’s away losses) = 12 out of 24 total games = 50%

Draw = 3 + 4 = 7 of 24 = 29.16%

Away win = 2 (Home team’s away losses) + 3 (Visitor’s away wins) = 5 of 24 = 20.83%

You can, of course, take results from previous seasons into , and this can be particularly useful nearer the start of the season.

It is worth bearing in mind, however, that teams can change quite drastically from season to season, so if you make the comparison period too long, you will get a less accurate result.

Using Form Analysis in Football Betting

So why is the information above important when it comes to football betting?

There are so many different types of bets that you can put on that any extra help you can get from statistics should always come into play.

We all want our team to win, but the reality is that unless you the absolute best team in your league, the chances are that some teams will outplay them time and time again.

Isn’t it better to use the extra stats to help and maybe not throw your money away??

Used against certain teams, stats can really give your chances a boost…

• Match Betting: If one team is in significantly better form than the other, they might be more likely to win.
• Over/Under Goals: If both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, you might bet on there being more goals in the match (Over).
• Both Teams to Score: If recent matches for both teams show that they both score and concede goals frequently, betting on both teams to score might be a good option.

It should be noted that this should be a starting point for evaluating probabilities. There are plenty of other factors to take into .

But once you’ve done the groundwork of assessing form, you start to get a better picture of the potential outcome.

Other Factors To Think About

Key players are incredibly important. If it turns out that the striker who’s bagged most of the goals this season is injured, you will need to adjust your figures.

How far into the league is the game? Teams, like players, suffer from fatigue. If your club is having a mare of a season, it’s unlikely that they will just turn around and start playing like World Cup winners.

That is doubly true of teams who are also playing in Europe or who are still in FA Cup contention.

A congested fixture list, along with injuries, can spell disaster for clubs who don’t have depth and strength on their bench.

These intangibles can’t be entered into a calculator directly, but if you use the Fink Tank model, for example, you can assign numerical values to these other factors.

Once you have arrived at a fairly effective method for asg probabilities, you can start to apply them to football betting systems.

That way, you can find the most attractive bets and decide how much to place on each.